Author: Tuula Löytty

A city publishes a circular economy roadmap. Companies develop new circular economy solutions. Interesting pilots are under way, campaigns are organised for residents, and material recycling is being improved.

But does this already mean that the region is genuinely transitioning towards a circular economy?

Not necessarily.

The UCT-R10 Circular Transition Maturity Engine was developed to address this question. It is an AI-assisted assessment tool for examining the maturity of circular economy transitions in cities, regions and territorial ecosystems.

Its purpose is not to identify the “best circular economy city” or to produce a single circularity score. Instead, UCT-R10 asks:

What kind of circular transition capacity can currently be demonstrated in the region – and what would need to happen for the transition to mature to the next level?

Three actors, three directions of circular transition

UCT-R10 is an AI-powered circular transition maturity assessment application developed by Smart & Lean Hub Oy. It combines two perspectives to analyse how circular transition is developing across cities, regions and territorial ecosystems.

The first foundation is the Urban Circularity Triangle (Town–Home–Services), used in the Circ@Home project to describe how municipalities, households and circular services interact in advancing circularity. UCT-R10 builds on this interaction logic but is an independently developed AI application and is not an official Circ@Home project methodology.

• Town refers to the city or public sector as a system enabler. Its instruments include, for example, strategies, regulation, infrastructure, procurement, incentives and monitoring.
• Services refers to companies and other service providers that should be able to turn circular economy principles into functioning services, hubs, business models and markets.
• Home refers to households and citizens. The circular economy does not become normal practice unless people actually adopt and use the solutions.

What matters, however, is not only what these actors do separately, but how they interact. UCT-R10 uses AI to examine these connections together with R10 circular economy strategies and the maturity of available evidence as part of an evidence-based circular transition maturity assessment.

Do public procurements create markets for circular services? Are services sufficiently easy, affordable and reliable for households? Is citizen demand reflected in business activity? Does business activity, in turn, generate information that helps the city develop its policies?

Circular transition takes place precisely through these interactions.

From recycling towards system redesign – what does R10 mean?

The circular economy is easily equated with recycling. Recycling, however, is only one way of implementing circularity. Research has highlighted the problem that the circular economy is often reduced to reduce–reuse–recycle thinking, even though a genuine circular transition requires broader systemic change (Kirchherr, Reike & Hekkert, 2017).

The R10 circular economy strategies provide a broader perspective on what can be done with materials, products and their use. The idea is simple: the circular economy is not only about what happens to waste after it has been generated, but also about whether waste generation and the need for new materials can be prevented much earlier.

The R0–R9 approach used in UCT-R10 is based on a hierarchy of circular economy strategies in which approaches to preserving resource value range from refusing and rethinking to the recovery of materials and energy (Potting, Hekkert, Worrell & Hanemaaijer, 2017).

The strategies are:

• R0 Refuse. Make a product unnecessary or avoid the use of a particular product, material or resource.
• R1 Rethink. Change the way a product, service or system delivers the required benefit. Product use can, for example, be intensified through sharing or new service models.
• R2 Reduce. Reduce the use of materials, energy and other natural resources in production or consumption.
• R3 Reuse. A functioning product or component is used by another user instead of being discarded.
• R4 Repair. Extend a product’s lifetime through maintenance and repair.
• R5 Refurbish. Restore and update an old product so that it can return to use.
• R6 Remanufacture. Use parts of a used product to manufacture a new product for the same purpose.
• R7 Repurpose. Use a product or its component for a new purpose.
• R8 Recycle. Process materials into new raw materials or material streams.
• R9 Recover. Recover remaining value from materials or waste, for example as energy.

The underlying logic of the R-strategies is hierarchical: the better the original value of products, components and materials can be preserved, and the earlier resource use can be influenced, the less dependent the system is on recycling materials only at the end of their life cycle (Potting et al., 2017).

UCT-R10 does not, however, treat all strategies as ten separate assessment areas. To make the direction of regional transition easier to understand, they are grouped into three categories: R0–R2 Prevent & rethink, R3–R5 Extend lifetime and R6–R9 Recover value (UCT-R10 Circular Transition Maturity Engine, Version 16).

R6–R9: Recover value

This group focuses on recovering value from existing product and material flows through remanufacturing, repurposing, recycling and other forms of recovery.

For many cities, the most visible circular economy activity begins here: waste sorting, material recovery, recycling systems or industrial material loops.

UCT-R10 nevertheless asks critically whether the material actually returns to use and whether a functioning value chain develops around it. Waste collection alone does not demonstrate a mature circular transition. In some contexts, functioning collection may primarily represent the establishment of an essential basic system rather than evidence of mature material circularity (UCT-R10 Circular Transition Maturity Engine, Version 16).

R3–R5: Extend lifetime

Here the focus shifts from waste to the product.

Can the product be reused? Can it be repaired? Can it be refurbished so that a new product does not need to be manufactured?

Examples include repair services, reuse, second-hand markets, refurbishment, maintenance services and the logistics and business models that support them. These strategies aim to keep the value of products and their components in use for as long as possible instead of losing that value and leaving only material recycling as an option (Potting et al., 2017).

For regional transition, the important question is not only whether such services exist, but whether they constitute viable business for companies and normal, accessible and repeatedly used options for people (UCT-R10 Circular Transition Maturity Engine, Version 16).

R0–R2: Prevent & rethink

At the beginning of the R10 hierarchy, the perspective goes further still.

Instead of asking what should be done with a product after use, the question becomes whether the product, material or current operating model is needed in the same way in the first place.

Examples include reducing resource use, sharing solutions, servitisation, waste prevention and redesigning production and consumption systems. These strategies rank high in the R-hierarchy because they aim to prevent or alter resource use before a product or material becomes a waste stream (Potting et al., 2017).

At this point, the circular economy begins to shift from a waste and materials issue to a question of system redesign. This systemic-change perspective is also important in broader definitions of the circular economy: in their analysis of 114 circular economy definitions, Kirchherr, Reike and Hekkert (2017) found that circularity is often described through reduce, reuse and recycle activities, while the perspective of systemic change can receive too little attention.

Why is this grouping important in UCT-R10 assessment?

R10 helps identify where in the value chain regional change is taking place.

A region may, for example, be advanced in material recycling but only at an early stage in markets for repair and reuse services. Or a city may have ambitious waste-prevention targets while there is still little evidence of their implementation in the everyday lives of households and businesses.

This is why UCT-R10 combines the three R10 groups with the three actors of the Urban Circularity Triangle – Town, Services and Home – and the interactions between them.

This makes it possible to ask, for example:

• Does Town create demand for R0–R2 solutions through procurement and regulation?
• Are there functioning R3–R5 repair, reuse and refurbishment services at the Services level?
• Do Home actors – households – actually use these services repeatedly?
• Do Town and Services together create functioning markets for recycled materials?
• Does Town enable households to change, and does that opportunity translate into behaviour?
• Does demand at the Home level, in turn, generate viable circular services?

This creates the UCT × R10 matrix.

Its purpose is not to give a city a single circularity number. It shows where circular transition capacity is already visible, where it is still developing and where the connection between actors still breaks down.

This distinction matters. Circular transition does not simply mean recycling more. It is a progressively deeper change: from recovering value to preserving the value of products, and further towards preventing resource demand and rethinking the system as a whole.

Figure 1. UCT-R10 combines the Urban Circularity Triangle (Town–Services–Home), R10 circular economy strategies and evidence maturity to diagnose where circular transition capacity is emerging, operational or becoming systemic.

A project does not yet mean a transition

Perhaps the most important feature of UCT-R10 is its deliberate critical stance.

The tool does not interpret a strategy as implementation. A pilot is not the same as a permanent operating model. The existence of a service does not prove its use. A citizen campaign does not demonstrate behavioural change. The number of circular economy companies alone does not indicate the maturity of circular markets.

Nor are awards or well-known flagship projects sufficient on their own to demonstrate systemic change.

UCT-R10 distinguishes five evidence levels:

1. Intention – an ambition, strategy or objective
2. Activity – a project, experiment or pilot
3. Implementation – repeated and operational practice
4. Adoption – the solution is actually used by users, companies or organisations
5. System change – change is measurable, scalable and embedded in the system

This makes the assessment deliberately cautious.

If there is no evidence of actual adoption, UCT-R10 does not assume it.

First ask whether the basic system works

One of the key differences between UCT-R10 and many circular economy assessments is its baseline perspective.

Imagine a region where a large share of waste is not yet covered by a functioning collection system. A new collection service is established and reduces illegal dumping.

The change may be highly important for society.

But does it already represent high circular transition maturity?

According to UCT-R10, not necessarily.

The solution may primarily repair a missing basic service. The assessment therefore distinguishes between:

system repair – restoring a non-functioning basic system,

circular optimisation – improving the circular characteristics of a functioning system,

and system redesign – changing the logic of production, consumption, services or resource use.

The distinction is also important in international comparison. Two cities may implement solutions that look very similar externally even though those solutions play completely different roles in their respective systems.

AI as an evaluator – not a promoter

UCT-R10 is designed to operate as an AI-assisted assessment engine.

It can be provided with, for example, city or regional strategies, project reports, research and other documentation. The assessment can also be conducted using public web-based evidence or by combining documentary and public evidence.

The role of AI is not to collect as many positive circular economy examples as possible.

Its role is to challenge the evidence.

What does this source actually prove? Is it a target, a pilot or established practice? Is there evidence that users actually use the service? Has the material flow genuinely returned to use? Has the operating model scaled? Does the change depend on a single flagship project? Is there also negative evidence that changes the interpretation?

Based on these questions, UCT-R10 creates a circular transition fingerprint for the region.

A region may appear, for example, to be focused on material recovery, driven by public procurement, based on service markets, driven by citizen adoption or progressing towards system redesign.

The fingerprint is not a position in a league table.

It shows where transition capacity currently resides.

The key question is not “how circular are we?”

UCT-R10 changes the framing of the assessment.

Instead of asking:

“How circular is this city?”

we can ask:

“Where has the circular transition already moved from strategy to activity, where has activity turned into adoption, and what is preventing the next systemic change?”

At the same time, mechanisms can be identified that other regions may be able to use.

The aim is not to copy an individual solution from one city to another. It is more important to understand the mechanism behind the solution: for example, how public procurement creates demand, how a service becomes a normal choice for households, or how usage data begins to guide city decision-making.

Ultimately, circular transition is not a collection of circular economy projects. It is a change in how cities, services and people together use, preserve and renew resource-related value.

UCT-R10 is designed to make this change visible – while also showing honestly where evidence of systemic change is still missing.

The UCT-R10 Circular Transition Maturity Engine is an AI-assisted maturity diagnosis, not an official certification, audit or performance ranking. Results depend on the available evidence and may change as new information becomes available. Outputs should be interpreted together with expert judgement and verified against original sources where relevant.

Try UCT-R10

Run your own circular transition maturity assessment with the UCT-R10 AI application.

1. Scan the QR code below to open UCT-R10.
2. Sign in to ChatGPT. A free ChatGPT account is sufficient.
3. Start a new conversation with UCT-R10.
4. Enter the city, region or territorial ecosystem you want to assess.
5. Select your preferred assessment language.
6. UCT-R10 will guide you through the assessment and ask you to define the evidence mode.
7. Depending on the assessment, UCT-R10 can work with public evidence, uploaded documents, or a combination of both.
8. Follow the prompts and provide additional information or documents when relevant.
9. UCT-R10 will produce an evidence-based circular transition maturity diagnosis.

No paid ChatGPT subscription is required to use UCT-R10. A ChatGPT account and sign-in are required. Free accounts are subject to ChatGPT’s current usage limits, including separate limits that may apply to file uploads and other advanced features.

Scan the QR code to open UCT-R10 Circular Transition Maturity Engine

Open UCT-R10 directly in ChatGPT

UCT-R10 is an independently developed AI-assisted assessment application by Smart & Lean Hub Oy. It is not an official Circ@Home project methodology, certification, audit or performance ranking. Results depend on the evidence available and may change when new evidence becomes available.

References

Kirchherr, J., Reike, D. & Hekkert, M. (2017). Conceptualizing the circular economy: An analysis of 114 definitions. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 127, 221–232. DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2017.09.005.

Potting, J., Hekkert, M. P., Worrell, E. & Hanemaaijer, A. (2017). Circular Economy: Measuring Innovation in the Product Chain. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Publication No. 2544, The Hague.

UCT-R10 Circular Transition Maturity Engine Version 16.